The U.S. market was quiet overnight, continuing the previous Asian and European time trading trends, fluctuating within a narrow range between 1316-1330. The Consumer Confidence Index of the U.S. Consultative Chamber of Commerce announced at 22:00 yesterday evening Beijing time was 80.3, expected to be 81.4, and the previous value was revised up to 82.1. The confidence index has fallen from a five-year high, showing signs that the US economic recovery may slow down. The previously announced US housing data also reflected that the recovery process may be repeated. According to the data, the monthly rate of the house price index in the 20 major cities in the United States after the seasonal adjustment in May S&P/CS increased by 1.0%, which is expected to increase by 1.5%, and the previous value increased by 1.7%; the monthly rate of the unseasonally adjusted house price index increased by 2.4%, and the expected increase was 2.3%. At the same time, the monthly rate of the seasonally adjusted house price index in 10 major cities in the US in May S&P/CS increased by 1.1%, and the previous value increased by 1.8%; the monthly rate of the unseasonally adjusted house price index increased by 2.5%, and the previous value increased by 2.6%. However, the lower-than-expected data did not affect the gold market too much. Market participants are all eagerly waiting for the arrival of relevant employment and macroeconomic data, as well as the interest rate resolutions and post-conference announcements of central banks. Light trading limits the volatility of gold. In addition to the discussion of the scale of asset purchases, the current market's speculation about who will take over the current Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke after January 30, 2014 is gradually emerging. Although President Obama has not made any effective hints to the outside world about the proposed candidate, in the eyes of the public, Janet Louis Yellen, the current Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Lawrence Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, will be in this position. The most favorable contender. Janet Louis Yellen, PhD in Economics from Yale University, Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, and Chairman of the 18th Presidential Council of Economic Advisors nominated by President Clinton. Yellen is a representative of the Fed’s doves. She believes that the biggest problem in the U.S. economy is the high unemployment rate. Even after several rounds of stimulus policies aimed at lowering the unemployment rate, Yellen still believes that the high unemployment rate will continue. Precious metal bullionDeflation prevention remains the top priority of the US government. She refutes the view that deficits will inevitably lead to high inflation and defended loose fiscal and monetary policies. Foreign media generally believe that if Yellen succeeds Bernanke, the quantitative easing policy will not change much. Lawrence Summers comes from a famous American financial family. His parents are economists and professors at the University of Pennsylvania. His uncle Paul Ann Summerson and his uncle Kenneth Joseph Arrow are both Nobel Prize winners in economics. Summers assumed the post of Secretary of the Treasury in 1999, and subsequently served as the President of Harvard University and a member of the Joint Council of Distinguished Persons, responsible for overseeing the work of the United Nations Committee on Trade and Development. In 2008, Summers served as the economic adviser to the Obama campaign, and in 2009 became the director of the White House's National Economic Council. As a representative of the hawks, Summers scoffed at the continued use of monetary means to stimulate the economy. He once said at the Fed’s internal meeting that QE’s effect on economic stimulus was not as great as imagined, and that the market seriously underestimated the Fed’s pace of changing monetary policy and at the same time underestimated its impact on interest rates. In addition, Summers' worries about inflation caused by QE are always expressed in his words. Summers is a student of Robert Rubin, former US Treasury Secretary. The outside world believes that Obama has a preference for the Rubin system, but when the US economy is struggling, Obama may also avoid danger and make a different choice. But in short, if Summers succeeds in taking over as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the current monetary policy may soon face drastic changes. The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the US dollar and precious metals is obvious. In the coming period, the overt and secret battles for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve will become more intense, and the market will fluctuate accordingly. Gold is currently running in the rebound channel formed after hitting $1180, and it is also in the downward channel formed since the April crash. In the future, whether it is to reverse the current decline and continue the trend of the previous 10 years? Or will it continue to go down with the trend of the near future? The Fed will play a vital role. As the core of the Fed, the expectation of the chairmanship until it is finally determined has become more and more interesting.
Ole Hansen, senior manager of Danish Saxo Bank, pointed out: The unexpected move by the Swiss National Bank is a good thing for gold, because it brings unexpected losses to many investors and gradually turns into risk aversion. In addition, as the week before the regular meeting of the European Central Bank, if the QE plan is indeed announced, it will bring new shocks to the market. For gold priced in US dollars, this effect may be more complicated, and ultimately depends on the market's pursuit of US dollars and gold, but it is undoubtedly a positive for euro-priced gold.
This week, a series of important economic data will be released, including the revised value of the US second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the August Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone Industrial Prosperity Index, Germany’s second quarter GDP, and the multinational price index. Wait. The market will use economic data to study and judge the economic situation of various countries, and grasp policy trends through the central bank's annual meeting and make corresponding adjustments.
Silver fell back to the support near the bottom of 35 last week, triggering a shorting trend. However, based on the judgment that the bottom support will not break and continue to rebound, we can see that the resistance of breaking 36 can verify the trend upward analysis; the short-term weekly moving average golden cross constitutes the rebound support. Seeing that the moving average is rising again, there is a tendency to support a rebound; while the weekly indicator KDJ low Jin Cha rises rapidly, MACD green column continues to shorten the fast and slow lines, there is a upward trend; the strong closing of the daily K line on Friday formed a bald big Yang line, early today The gap rise has tested the important resistance since the adjustment of $40. The pattern looks at the bottom of the two months and formed a strong W bottom support. Compared with gold, the overall price of silver has more room for upside, and the weekly resistance is around US$45 and support is around US$36.
2011 is coming to an end. Looking back at the financial market this year, only gold investment is still shining. Looking ahead to the price of gold in 2012, a report recently released by Hang Seng Bank pointed out that a number of factors will continue to support the rise in gold prices in the future. The price of gold is expected to exceed $2,000 per ounce in 2012, which is about 14% higher than the current price.
Silver prices fell by 36% in 2013, while gold fell by 28%. The Fed unexpectedly reduced its bond purchases by US$10 billion in December, stimulating global stock markets to surge. At the same time, gold ETF holdings coPrecious metal bullionntinued to decrease last year, but low prices have pushed up strong demand for Asian gold jewelry, gold bars and gold coins.
In addition, the price of crude oil has also fallen all the way due to the continued increase in inventories and the release of reserves by the IEA. The overall chemical products are weak, and the continuous plastics are slightly strong, but the downstream demand is sluggish, and the trend may not continue. The Dow has even erected eight consecutive Yinxian lines, especially when there was a 2.19% drop this Wednesday. The base metal outer disk also continued to weaken. Aluminum in the inner plate is unique, and the trend this week is stronger than that of copper and zinc. The overall market for agricultural products this week was better than other sectors. Soybeans rose sharply in the first half of the week, but you need to beware of the risk of capital withdrawal.
From a macroeconomic perspective, first of all, the US dollar is no longer the first choice for a safe-haven currency, because people are worried that the US economy will recover more slowly than imagined and may even enter a recession again. At present, the United States must make a very difficult decision on the deficit issue, and the Senate and the House of Representatives are also having larger disputes over the long-term resolution of the deficit issue, which is bound to increase the bargaining chip for gold to rise. Because both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives are not willing to make concessions in their own interests, the outcome of this deficit bill cannot be substantially beneficial to the US economy.