VTBCapital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said that it seems untimely to be short on gold, and many investors are covering short positions. In addition, although the bears recently set stop losses at 1300 and 1320 US dollars, inPrecious Metal Index Fund fact, gold has broken through the resistance level and rose smoothly. However, the price of gold still faces some resistance after rising to around $1340.
The disagreement is so great that more and more hedge funds are pessimistic about the risk of default on US Treasury bonds. The disagreement pointed out by Zhang Gang, a U.S. commodity hedge fund manager, seems to be becoming an irreconcilable contradiction between the U.S. government and Congress. In addition to raising the upper limit of Treasury bonds, the differences between the two sides are also that the U.S. government wants to pass a comprehensive reform of the tax law. On the basis of generating 800 billion US dollars in revenue, an additional 400 billion yuan in taxes will be added, but the House Majority Leader Bona opposes any tax increase plan.
However, it is worth mentioning that although silver speculation has brought huge returns to many investors, the turbulent trend of spot silver prices in the past year is still heart-pounding when recalled. From the beginning of the year to April 25, spot silver surged all the way to an all-time high of 49.77 US dollars per ounce. After that, it experienced three plunges in early May, late September and mid-December. On September 26, it hit a year low of $26.04 and finally ended sadly.
In addition, due to economic recovery, double-digit inflation and stable currency performance, Turkey's gold demand in the first half of this year has grown rapidly. At the same time, the central bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves this year, and this was the first time the central bank of the country increased its holdings since the 1980s.
However, due to the optimistic interpretation of non-agricultural data, the price of gold and silver immediately rose and fell. Analysts pointed out that although the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in January was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate data was higher than expected, the data for November and December were revised up significantly. At the same time, the average monthly non-agricultural employment in 2012 was also revised up from the initial value, suggesting that the employment situation in the United States is continuously improving.
Now the banks in the euro zone can not lend, but they do not lend. Commodity investment hedge fund manager Zhang Gang revealed that some euro area banks were able to accept German and other European AAA-rated government bonds as collateral for U.S. dollar positions. The mortgage rate was close to 80%. However, as Standard & Poor’s FrPrecious Metal Index Fundance and other Eurozone AAA-rated countries are included on the negative watch list. Some Eurozone banks are beginning to worry about the depreciation of German-French bonds due to credit ratings or downgrades. They are unwilling to regard German-French bonds as safe collateral, even for individual euros. District banks are willing to open a small amount of US dollar positions, and the mortgage rate has dropped to 70%.
The capital market at this moment seems to be full of changes. Unlike each change, this time it is likely to be at the national level. In order to achieve their respective economic intentions and political will, choices and strategies will be uncovered and will no longer be mysterious and conspiracy. What methods will the United States use to curb the decline of the US dollar? How will Germany and France, which are eyeing control of the euro zone, unify the decentralized fiscal power of the euro zone through the debt issue; where is the way out for Japan's economy and politics? In the context of high inflation and high unemployment, how to transform the economy and how to withstand capital attacks in the global financial market. As an investor, thinking about these things can not only be used to grasp information in short-term operations, but also to perceive trends in medium and long-term investments.
Market sentiment is tending to ease, but this is only temporary. Yao Haiqiao believes that even if the bill to raise the debt ceiling is passed, it may cause the Fed to buy government bonds and invest money into the market. After all, U.S. debt is currently being questioned by all parties, how much will foreigners buy? If the Fed buys, this is a kind of QE3 operation in disguise, and then liquidity will flood again. Yao Haiqiao said.
In addition, although the future financial marketization may reduce the attractiveness of gold, since the reform of the financial system will be a gradual process, investors’ gold holdings are worth approximately US$75 billion as of the end of 2013. Very small compared to other assets. Therefore, there is still considerable room for growth in gold investment demand, especially considering the commitment of large banks to develop the gold market.